kumamoto earthquake 2016 case study

Groundwater as emergency water supply: case study of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake, Japan

Les eaux souterraines comme approvisionnement d’urgence en eau: étude de cas du tremblement de terre de 2016 à Kumamoto, Japon

El agua subterránea como suministro de agua en emergencias: estudio de caso del terremoto de Kumamoto de 2016, Japón

地下水作为应急供水:以2016年日本熊本地震为例

Águas subterrâneas como suprimento emergencial de água: estudo de caso do terremoto Kumamoto, Japão em 2016

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• Published: 17 October 2022
• volume  30 ,  pages 2237–2250 ( 2022 )

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• Takahiro Endo   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-4676-8624 1 ,
• Tomoki Iizuka 2 ,
• Hitomi Koga 3 &
• Nahoko Hamada 3  

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Securing water supply is an extremely important issue following an earthquake. Recent earthquakes in Japan have prompted focus on the use of groundwater or disaster emergency wells (DEWs). Water supply networks are vulnerable to earthquakes because they comprise long-distance pipelines that are not always earthquake-resistant. Groundwater, however, can usually be found directly below an area where water is required and can serve as an alternative water source. Although previous studies discussed the importance of groundwater in relation to natural disasters, with special reference to drought, little attention has been given to the use of groundwater following earthquakes. In this study, two questionnaire surveys were conducted of DEW owners and welfare facilities for elderly people in Kumamoto (Japan), which was struck by an Mw 7.3 earthquake in 2016, to identify the advantages and disadvantages of using groundwater as an emergency water supply and ascertain policy issues to be resolved for making DEWs effective. Results showed that not only 30 DEWs but also at least 25 privately owned wells not registered as DEWs were open to the public in the early restoration stage, improving people’s access to water and decreasing the burden on the Kumamoto city government’s emergency water supply. However, it was revealed that groundwater might not always be potable owing to quality concerns. Additionally, only a limited number of welfare facilities used the available adjacent DEWs and DEW recognition level remains low. These findings indicate that improving information disclosure regarding emergency groundwater use is a policy issue to be resolved.

La sécurisation de l’approvisionnement en eau est une question extrêmement importante après un tremblement de terre. Les récents tremblements de terre au Japon ont attiré l’attention sur l’utilisation des eaux souterraines ou des puits d’urgence en cas de catastrophe (PUCs). Les réseaux d’approvisionnement en eau sont vulnérables aux tremblements de terre car ils sont constitués de canalisations sur de longues distances qui ne sont pas toujours résistantes aux séismes. En revanche, les eaux souterraines se trouvent généralement directement sous une zone où l’on a besoin d’eau et peuvent servir de source d’eau alternative. Bien que des études antérieures aient discuté de l’importance des eaux souterraines en relation avec les catastrophes naturelles, avec une référence particulière à la sécheresse, peu d’attention a été accordée à l’utilisation des eaux souterraines suite à des tremblements de terre. Dans cette étude, deux enquêtes par questionnaire ont été menées auprès de propriétaires de PUC et d’établissements d’aide sociale pour personnes âgées à Kumamoto (Japon), qui a été frappé par un tremblement de terre de magnitude de 7.3 en 2016, afin d’identifier les avantages et les inconvénients de l’utilisation des eaux souterraines comme approvisionnement d’urgence en eau et de déterminer les problèmes politiques à résoudre pour rendre les PUC efficaces. Les résultats ont montré que non seulement 30 PUCs mais aussi au moins 25 puits privés non enregistrés comme PUCs ont été ouverts au public au début de la phase de restauration, améliorant ainsi l’accès à l’eau de la population et réduisant la charge sur l’approvisionnement d’urgence en eau de la ville de Kumamoto. Cependant, il a été révélé que l’eau souterraine n’est pas toujours potable en raison de problèmes de qualité. En outre, seul un nombre limité d’établissements d’aide sociale ont utilisé les PUCs avoisinants disponibles et le niveau de reconnaissance des PUCs reste faible. Ces résultats indiquent que l’amélioration de la divulgation d’informations concernant l’utilisation d’urgence des eaux souterraines est un enjeu de politique à résoudre.

Garantizar el suministro de agua es una cuestión extremadamente importante después de un terremoto. Los recientes terremotos en Japón han hecho que se preste atención al uso de aguas subterráneas o pozos de emergencia para catástrofes ( DEWs). Las redes de abastecimiento de agua son vulnerables a los terremotos porque están formadas por tuberías de larga distancia que no siempre son resistentes a los terremotos. Las aguas subterráneas, sin embargo, suelen encontrarse directamente debajo de una zona donde se necesita agua y pueden servir como fuente de agua alternativa. Aunque en estudios anteriores se analizó la importancia de las aguas subterráneas en relación con las catástrofes naturales, con especial referencia a la sequía, se ha prestado poca atención al uso de las aguas subterráneas tras los terremotos. En este estudio, se realizaron dos encuestas por cuestionario a los propietarios de DEW y a las instalaciones de bienestar para personas mayores en Kumamoto (Japón), que fue golpeado por un terremoto de Mw 7.3 en 2016, para identificar las ventajas y desventajas del uso de las aguas subterráneas como un suministro de agua en caso de emergencia y determinar las cuestiones de política que deben resolverse para que los DEW sean eficaces. Los resultados mostraron que no solo 30 DEWs sino también al menos 25 pozos de propiedad privada no registrados como DEWs estaban abiertos al público en la etapa de recuperación temprana, mejorando el acceso de la gente al agua y disminuyendo la carga del suministro de agua de emergencia del gobierno de la ciudad de Kumamoto. Sin embargo, se puso de manifiesto que las aguas subterráneas no siempre eran potables debido a problemas de calidad. Además, sólo un número limitado de instalaciones de asistencia social utilizaba los desagües adyacentes disponibles y el nivel de reconocimiento de los desagües sigue siendo bajo. Estos resultados indican que la mejora de la divulgación de información sobre el uso de las aguas subterráneas en caso de emergencia es una cuestión política que debe resolverse.

震后供水保障是极其重要的问题。日本最近发生的地震促使人们关注地下水或灾害应急井(DEWs)的使用。供水网络很容易受到地震的影响, 因为它们包含的长输管道并不总是抗震的。然而, 地下水通常可以直接在需要水的区域下方找到, 并且可以作为替代水源。尽管以前的研究讨论了地下水对自然灾害的重要性, 特别是干旱, 但很少关注地震后地下水的利用。本研究通过对2016年日本熊本7.3级地震中的DEW所有者和老年人福利设施进行两次问卷调查，了解利用地下水作为应急供水的优势和不足, 并确定有效利用DEW需要解决的政策问题。结果表明, 在恢复初期, 不仅有30口DEW向公众开放, 而且至少有25口未注册DEW的私营井向公众开放, 改善了人们的用水渠道，减轻了熊本市政府应急供水的负担。然而, 据透露, 由于质量问题，地下水可能并非总是可饮用的。此外，仅有有限数量的福利设施使用了可利用的相邻DEW, DEW识别水平仍然较低。这些发现表明，改善应急地下水利用的信息披露是一个有待解决的政策问题。

Garantir o suprimento de água é um assunto extremamente importante após um terremoto. Terremotos recentes no Japão tiveram foco pontual no uso de águas subterrâneas ou nos poços de emergência para desastres (PEDs). As redes de suprimento de água estão vulneráveis aos terremotos em razão das tubulações abrangerem uma grande distância que, nem sempre, são resistentes a terremotos. As águas subterrâneas, no entanto, geralmente podem ser encontradas diretamente abaixo de uma área onde a água é requerida e pode servir como uma fonte alternativa de água. Apesar de estudos anteriores discutirem a importância da relação entre águas subterrâneas e desastres naturais, com referência especial às secas, pouca atenção foi concedida para o uso das águas subterrâneas após um terremoto. Neste estudo, dois questionários de pesquisa foram aplicados à proprietários de PED e instalações de saúde para idosos em Kumamoto (Japão), os quais foram atingidos pelo terremoto de 7.3 Mw em 2016, para identificar as vantagens e desvantagens da utilização das águas subterrâneas como um suprimento emergencial de água e de verificar as questões políticas que devem ser resolvidas para tornar o PED eficaz. Resultados demonstram que não apenas 30 PEDs mas também, pelo menos, 25 poços de propriedades privadas não registradas como PEDs foram abertos para o público no estágio inicial de restauração, melhorando o acesso à água para a população e diminuindo a pressão sobre o abastecimento de água emergencial do governo da cidade de Kumamoto. Entretanto, foi revelado que essas águas subterrâneas podem não ser sempre potáveis de acordo com os padrões de qualidade. Complementarmente, apenas um numero limitado de instalações de saúde utilizaram os PEDs adjacentes disponíveis e o nível de identificação dos PED permanece baixo. Estas descobertas indicam a melhora das divulgações das informações sobre o uso das águas subterrâneas emergenciais é uma questão política a ser resolvida.

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Introduction

How to secure water supply, a fundamental requirement of daily life, is one of the most crucial problems following the occurrence of an earthquake (Noji 2005 ; Loo et al. 2012 ; Balaei et al. 2018 ). Water supply networks are vulnerable to the effects of earthquakes because they comprise long-distance pipelines that are not always earthquake-resistant. It is considered that groundwater could play an important role as an alternative water source because it can usually be found directly below an area in which water is required (Vrba and Renaud 2016 ).

Many earlier studies discussed groundwater use in response to the impact of natural disasters. While most focused on the role of groundwater in periods of drought (Gleeson et al. 2010 ; Famiglietti 2014 ; Alley et al. 2016 ; Jasechko and Perrone 2020 ), few studies considered groundwater use following the occurrence of earthquakes. Water shortage following an earthquake is completely different from that in times of drought. It occurs in a sudden and unpredictable way and must be resolved rapidly when water-related infrastructure and social organizations have possibly lost their ordinary functions.

This, however, does not mean that the use of groundwater following disasters other than drought has not been investigated. The Intergovernmental Hydrological Programme of the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization dealt with methods to find groundwater following natural disasters, including earthquakes, as part of the Groundwater for Emergency Situations project (Vrba and Verhagen 2006 ). Vrba ( 2016 ) identified that groundwater could provide an emergency water supply after an earthquake, and discussed various institutional and technical components for effective groundwater governance in emergency situations. Additionally, Davis et al. ( 2020 ) estimated the capability of groundwater to meet the minimum requirements for drinking water in a flood event through a case study of urban springs in Kharkiv (Ukraine).

Although such studies addressed the potential role of groundwater in future disaster events, few studies have investigated how groundwater was actually used in an emergency. It is true that Keshari et al. ( 2006 ), Sukhija and Rao ( 2011 ), Tanaka ( 2016 ), and Villholth ( 2007 ) all presented examples of groundwater use for various purposes following earthquakes; however, the information presented was very fractional. Therefore, further work remains to be undertaken to investigate the actual use of groundwater following the occurrence of natural disasters and to evaluate its potential as an emergency water supply.

This paper reports a case study of the Mw 7.3 (Mj 7.0) earthquake that struck Kumamoto (Japan) in 2016 (hereafter, referred to as the Kumamoto Earthquake). Although the physical impact of the earthquake on the local groundwater environment was investigated in depth by Hosono et al. ( 2019 , 2020 ) and Ide et al. ( 2020 ), the use of groundwater following the occurrence of the disaster has been poorly investigated. Koga and Hamada ( 2020 ) did conduct a questionnaire survey of local well owners to ascertain the level of use of groundwater following the earthquake. They asked local well owners questions regarding the effect the earthquake had on groundwater pumping and whether the water from the wells was made available to the public; however, the number of questions was very limited.

In this paper, the work of Koga and Hamada ( 2020 ) is expanded by widening the objects of investigation. Two questionnaire surveys were distributed among the owners of local wells and welfare facilities for aged people in Kumamoto. Local well owners were identified as those whose wells were registered as disaster emergency wells (DEWs) in Kumamoto as of March 2020. Although there was some overlap with the respondents to the earlier questionnaire survey, the lists of people surveyed were not identical. These well owners were considered able to have played a role as potential groundwater suppliers following the Kumamoto Earthquake. The latter group surveyed were considered potential groundwater users and represented the newly added investigation objects.

Widening of the investigation objects was performed to support the following purposes addressed in this paper. The first purpose is to understand in detail how local groundwater was used following the occurrence of the earthquake by looking at both supply and demand. The second purpose is to examine the advantages and disadvantages of using groundwater as an emergency water supply. The third purpose is to identify policy issues that could make the use of groundwater more effective following an earthquake.

This remainder of the paper gives an overview of the Kumamoto Earthquake and the institutions concerned with DEWs, along with the method of the questionnaire survey. The survey results are presented and there is a discussion.

The Kumamoto Earthquake and Disaster Emergency Wells

The kumamoto earthquake.

The Kumamoto Earthquake constituted a series of seismic events that followed the foreshock (14 April 2016) and the mainshock (16 April 2016). These were the first recorded earthquakes with large intensity to strike the same area twice within a 28-h period (Kumamoto Prefecture 2019 ). The seismic centers of the earthquakes and the administrative boundary of the city of Kumamoto are shown in Fig. 1 .

Location of the study area and the seismic centers of the Kumamoto Earthquake

The population of the city at the time of the earthquake was 740,204 (Kumamoto City 2021 ). As a consequence of the earthquake, there were 139 fatalities and 2,581 people were injured. In addition to the human casualties, 181,373 houses were partially or totally destroyed because the area of damage extended beyond the city limits (Fire and Disaster Management Agency of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications 2016 ).

The city of Kumamoto is unusual in Japan in that its tap water is derived entirely from local groundwater. There are few other cities in Japan with a population of similar size that satisfy domestic water demand solely from groundwater (Shimada et al. 2012 ).

The Kumamoto City Waterworks and Sewerage Bureau oversees the local supply of drinking water. Before the earthquake, the bureau owned 112 wells and normally used 96 of them to provide water. However, these facilities were severely damaged by the earthquake. Not only the pumping stations but also the water pipes were destroyed in many parts of the city. Water is usually delivered to each household via a main pipeline and its subordinate branch pipes. Overall, 24 sections of main pipeline were damaged, and 272 and 2,213 sections of secondary and tertiary branch pipes, respectively, were affected. Moreover, the groundwater became muddy following the earthquake and the bureau was forced to stop supplying water throughout the entire city (Kumamoto City Waterworks and Sewerage Bureau 2018 ).

Figure 2 shows the changes in the numbers of households under cutoff of tap water (line chart) and of water stations (bar chart) provided by Kumamoto City Waterworks and Sewerage Bureau in the days following the earthquake. The foreshock on 14 April 2016 deprived 85,000 households of a water supply, but the mainshock on 15 April exacerbated the situation, pushing the number of cutoff households to 326,000. The number of affected households decreased to just 1,000 within a week of the foreshock and finally reached zero 16 days after the earthquake occurred (30 April 2016). It must be noted that this did not mean that all households within the city were able to use tap water again in accordance with this restoration process. The data indicate that water pipes were repaired temporarily such that tap water was able to be delivered to the front of the property of each household. Many people, however, still had to repair water pipes buried within their premises to deliver water inside (Kumamoto City Waterworks and Sewerage Bureau, personal communication 2019). This explains why Fig. 2 shows that the number of water stations kept increasing 7 days after the earthquake’s occurrence when the number of affected households had decreased to 1,000, and why they remained open even when the number of affected households reached zero.

Change in number of households under cutoff of tap water and water stations

Disaster Emergency Wells

Although water supply systems across Japan are presently being reconstructed to ensure that they are earthquake-resistant, only 40.9% of this work has been completed thus far (Water Supply Division, Pharmaceutical Safety and Environmental Health Bureau, Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare, Japan 2021 ). Attention has focused increasingly on alternative water supplies such as personal storage of bottled water, reuse of rainwater, use of school pools, and rotational supply by vehicles, especially following the Great Hanshin–Awaji Earthquake of 1995 (Yamada 1998 ).

Recently, increasing numbers of municipalities in Japan have introduced DEWs against a backdrop of frequent occurrences of earthquakes. A DEW is a local well that is registered in advance as a supplementary water supply in case of earthquakes or other disasters. While some DEWs are constructed by local governments, most are privately owned by households, local factories, and shopping malls. Registered DEWs are supposed to be open to the local population as a source of water for drinking or other domestic purposes in emergency situations. However, this is not mandated and the availability of such wells for public access is at the discretion of well owners. There are 1,741 municipalities in Japan, and 418 of them (approximately 25% of the total number) have introduced institutions to oversee DEWs (Endo 2021 ).

In the city of Kumamoto, DEWs were established following the occurrence of the Kumamoto Earthquake. The severe impact of the earthquake on the water supply throughout the city highlighted that the preparations against such a situation had been inadequate. On the basis of this reflection, the Kumamoto city government decided to introduce DEWs in 2017, a year after the earthquake struck. Almost all DEWs in the city of Kumamoto are privately owned. The selection of potential DEWs adopted the following process. First, the city government identified “big pumps” that were already registered. The majority of these (2,200) were wells with a pumping volume of >30,000 m 3 /year. Second, the wells had to be currently in use. Third, nearby parking needed to be available for convenient access by the local population, in case water needed to be carried to a vehicle. Finally, the city government asked the owners of such wells to register them as DEWs (Kumamoto City, personal communication 2019). Consequently, 91 organizations had accepted the offer as of March 2020. A breakdown of the registered DEW owners is presented in Fig. 3 . It can be seen that the food industry, hospitals, and welfare facilities for aged or handicapped persons represent a substantial proportion of the total number of DEW owners. For reference, private gymnasiums and local shrines are examples of facilities included within the “Others” category (Kumamoto City Government Office Environment Station 2021 ).

Breakdown of owners of Disaster Emergency Wells in the city of Kumamoto

Two questionnaire surveys were conducted. Respondents were asked to answer questions online or on paper from 12 February 2021 to 1 March 2021. The first questionnaire survey was sent to the 91 organizations whose wells were registered as DEWs. This survey comprised 21 questions addressing the effect of the earthquake on their wells, groundwater quality inspections following the earthquake, provision of groundwater to the local population, well management following the earthquake, and policy requests to the Kumamoto city government (Table 1 ). It should be noted that there were no official DEWs when the Kumamoto Earthquake occurred. Nevertheless, the survey revealed that some well owners made their wells available to the public, as discussed in section ‘ Provision of groundwater ’.

The second questionnaire survey was delivered to welfare facilities for aged people. Whereas the objective of the first survey was to investigate the conduct of groundwater suppliers following the earthquake, the second focused on those who demanded groundwater. Overall, 328 facilities were selected as targets from GIS attribute data compiled by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport (MLIT), Japan (MLIT 2021 ). The survey posed 17 questions addressing the methods of water supply in each facility at the time of the earthquake’s occurrence, effect of the water supply cutoff, recognition of DEWs and utilization of groundwater after the earthquake, emergency water sources other than groundwater, and preparedness efforts following the earthquake. The main topics of questions posed to the aged people at welfare facilities in each survey are listed in Table 1 . All the questions and responses relating to the two surveys are presented in the electronic supplementary material ( ESM1 , survey on disaster emergency wells; ESM2 , survey of welfare facilities).

Welfare facilities for aged people were selected as targets for the second survey because they represent a vulnerable group in a time of disaster and for whom special attention should be given regarding emergency water supply. This especially holds true in a rapidly aging society such as that in Japan. Additionally, unlike individual households, postal addresses can easily be obtained for such facilities, enabling efficient distribution of question sheets.

This paper focuses specifically on the responses to questions regarding the impact of the earthquake on wells, groundwater quality inspection after the earthquake, and offers of groundwater to neighbors (topics 1–3 to well owners in Table 1 ), recognition of DEWs and utilization of groundwater after the earthquake, and emergency water sources other than groundwater (topics 3 and 4 to the welfare facilities in Table 1 ).

Percentage of responses

The response to the first questionnaire (sent to DEW owners) was 62.6%, i.e., 57 out of 91 organizations responded. The response to the second questionnaire (sent to welfare facilities) was 36.0%, i.e., 118 out of 328 facilities responded.

Effect of earthquakes on wells

A question was asked of DEW owners to ascertain whether they experienced problems with their wells following the earthquake (see Table 1 , question No. 1 to well owners, regarding the topic ‘Earthquake’s influence on wells’). Respondents were required to choose one out of three reply choices: ‘1. Problem with well operation’, ‘2. No problem with well operation’, and ‘3. Not sure’. The largest number of respondents selected ‘2. No problem with well operation’ (Fig. 4 ).

Occurrence of problems with well operation

An additional question was asked of the 19 respondents who selected ‘1. Problem with well operation’ to determine the nature of the troubles. The respondents were allowed to select multiple replies from among the five choices shown in Table 2 . The result reveals that ‘4. Groundwater became muddy’ and ‘1. Pump came to a halt owing to electricity cutoff’ were the top two answers. Interestingly, none of the respondents selected ‘2. Electricity was available but pump was destroyed’.

Water quality inspection

To investigate the influence of water quality problems on groundwater use, a question was sent to DEW owners to determine whether they inspected the groundwater quality following the occurrence of the earthquake (see Table 1 , question No. 2 to well owners, regarding the topic ‘Groundwater quality inspection after the earthquake’). Of the 57 responses obtained, 37 respondents acknowledged that inspections were performed. Only three respondents conducted the inspection personally. The remainder (34 respondents) asked for full or partial support from external organizations to conduct the inspection (Table 3 ).

These 37 respondents were further asked to clarify the length of time that passed before they received the inspection results. They were required to select one of the following four choices: ‘0–1 day (the result was obtained on the day of the occurrence of the earthquake or the following day)’, ‘2–6 days’, ‘7–13 days’, and ‘14 days or more’. Overall, 34 responses to this question were obtained (i.e., three respondents declined to answer). The result reveals that only 29% of respondents (10 out of the 34 respondents) obtained the results of the inspection within a week (Fig. 5 ).

Number of days that passed before the results of groundwater quality inspections were received

Provision of groundwater

A question was posed to DEW owners to determine whether they provided groundwater to the local population to investigate how local wells had actually been used following the earthquake. (see Table 1 , question No. 3 to well owners, regarding the topic ‘Provision of groundwater to neighbors’). Respondents were required to choose one of two options: ‘1. Provided’ or ‘2. Did not provide’. Of the 57 responses, 30 (52.6%) chose the first option (Fig. 6 ).

Provision or lack of provision of groundwater

An additional question was asked of the 30 respondents who did provide groundwater to ascertain the primary purpose for which the water was used. Respondents were required to select just one of the eight choices shown in Table 4 . The result reveals that the largest number of respondents selected ‘2. Domestic purposes (toilet, laundry, and bathing)’, followed by ‘4. Drinking and domestic purposes’.

An additional question was asked of the 30 DEW owners who reported that they provided water to the local population to determine when that provision commenced. The responses revealed that a reasonably large number of DEW owners started to provide groundwater to the local population on the day of the earthquake or on the following day (Fig. 7 ).

Time when DEW owners started to provide groundwater

Groundwater use by welfare facilities for aged people

A question was sent to the welfare facilities for aged people in Kumamoto city to determine whether they obtained groundwater from local wells (see Table 1 , question No. 3 to welfare facilities, regarding the topic ‘Recognition of DEWs and utilization of groundwater after the earthquake’). Respondents were required to choose one of the following two choices: ‘1. We obtained groundwater from local wells’ and ‘2. We did not obtain groundwater from local wells’. Of the 116 facilities that answered this question, 44 (approximately 38%) selected the first option (Fig. 8 ).

An additional question to ascertain well ownership was then asked of the 44 facilities that selected ‘1. We obtained groundwater from local wells’. Respondents were allowed to choose multiple options from the 11 choices listed in Table 5 , whereby the result reveals that the largest number of respondents selected ‘1. Resident of detached house’.

Another question was then asked of the same 44 facilities to clarify the purposes for which they used the water obtained from the local wells. The results show that the most common use was for domestic purposes (toilet, laundry, and bathing; Table 6 ).

Recognition of DEWs by welfare facilities

A question was asked of the welfare facilities regarding whether they were aware of the institution of DEWs in general (see Table 1 , question No. 3 to welfare facilities, regarding the topic ‘Recognition of DEWs and utilization of groundwater after the earthquake’). The 115 responses obtained revealed that only 25% of respondents had such knowledge (Fig. 9 ).

Recognition of disaster emergency wells

Emergency water sources other than groundwater

A question was asked of the welfare facilities regarding ways, other than from groundwater, via which they secured a supply of water for drinking and domestic purposes following the occurrence of the earthquake (see Table 1 , question No. 4 to welfare facilities, regarding the topic ‘Emergency water sources other than groundwater’). Overall, 113 responses were obtained regarding ways to secure drinking water and 114 responses were obtained regarding ways to secure water for domestic purposes. The result shows that government water stations were not the only alternative—for example, the facilities were able to obtain water from their own water receiving tanks, their own stock of bottled water, and supportive action from external volunteers. Water delivery from relatives who lived nearby, local rivers, and school pools are examples of sources in the ‘Others’ category (Fig. 10 ).

Robustness of wells

As compiled in Fig. 4 , in terms of the question on whether they experienced problems with their wells following the earthquake, the option of ‘2. No problem with well operation’ was selected more than the option of ‘1. Problem with well operation’. Furthermore, regarding the question on the nature of the problems (Table 2 ), none of the respondents selected the option of ‘2. Electricity was available but pump was destroyed’. These two results indicate that wells proved to be a robust facility following the Kumamoto Earthquake and that they could represent an important water supply following another similar disaster. The main cause of well dysfunction was not the destruction of the actual facility but rather the loss of electricity supply or deterioration of water quality.

This result accords with the findings of research conducted by the National Water Well Association of Japan. The association investigated 261 wells in the most severely damaged prefectures 6 months after the Great East Japan Earthquake. Their results revealed that 213 wells (81.6% of the surveyed wells) continued operation unaffected by the earthquake and/or tsunami, 34 wells (13%) were temporarily affected by seawater intrusion or turbidity but were soon returned to normal operation, and 14 wells (5.4%) ceased operating. Of the 14 wells that stopped functioning, 8 were affected by the tsunami. Overall, only three wells (1.3% of the surveyed wells) ceased operation because of structural damage. From this field survey, the association concluded that wells generally have strong resilience against earthquake-induced shaking and could play an important role as an emergency water supply (National Water Well Association of Japan 2012 ).

Limitation on well use by groundwater quality degradation

It can be seen from Table 3 that of the 57 responses received from DEW owners, 34 indicated that groundwater inspection was conducted with the full or partial support of external organizations, which implies that the samples were examined by third-party laboratories.

Figure 5 reveals that only 29% of respondents (10 out of 34 respondents) obtained the results of the inspection within a week, which implies that the availability of DEWs is not a panacea for securing drinking water. The demand might be brought about immediately following the occurrence of an earthquake and the required quality is high. It is necessary to consider the combined uses of groundwater and other water sources including storage of bottled water and installation of water tanks for individual households. As shown in Fig. 10 , many of the welfare facilities in Kumamoto city adopted just such an approach of diversification.

In other words, DEWs could be highly effective as long as the use of the water is limited to purposes that do not need high quality, e.g., toilets. This is the case in Kumamoto. Table 4 shows that the primary purpose of groundwater provided by DEW owners was for domestic purposes (toilet, laundry, and bathing). Table 6 reveals that those welfare facilities that obtained groundwater from local wells used it mainly for the same purposes. The fact that DEW owners would rather provide for nondrinking water needs can be considered a reflection of the users’ preference.

If application of DEWs were to be extended to include drinking water, it will be necessary to establish rapid inspection methods. After the earthquake, just such an inspection system was developed in Kumamoto. The purpose of water extracted from DEWs in Kumamoto is generally intended for drinking and other domestic purposes. If a well owner wants to provide well water for drinking purposes, the Kumamoto City Environmental Research Center is supposed to check the water quality and inform the well owner whether it can be served for that purpose within 2 days of sample collection (Kumamoto City Government Office Environment Station 2021 ). However, it can be seen from Table 7 , which presents survey answers regarding the inspection methods and the number of days that passed before the results of groundwater quality inspections were received, that it took longer than 2 days to receive the inspection results for those who resorted to external organizations for testing. Whether the Kumamoto City Environmental Research Center is really able to inform well owners of the groundwater quality of the wells within 2 days remains uncertain.

Advantage of DEWs: improvement in access to water

An advantage of DEWs is the improvement in access to water. This point can be explained with reference to Fig. 11a , b in which the background shading represents population density based on the national population census data of 2015.

a Spatial distribution of population (shading), DEWs that provided groundwater to the local population (red circles), emergency water stations established by the Kumamoto city government (blue pins), and welfare facilities for aged people who obtained groundwater (wheelchair symbols) in Kumamoto, and b enlarged map of the area defined by the dotted rectangle ( a ). A red circle with a cross inside identifies a DEW whose owner did not reply to the questionnaire distributed in this study but did provide a positive answer to a question on groundwater provision in Koga and Hamada ( 2020 ). The blue circle (scaled radius: 500 m) around each emergency water station represents the distance of the Sphere Standard proposed as a universal minimum standard distance to the nearest waterpoint. Red-colored wheelchair symbols identify welfare facilities that obtained groundwater from the well of a detached house not registered as a DEW

First, red circles show the DEW owners who provided groundwater to the local population. Red circles with a cross inside identify DEWs whose owners who did not reply to the questionnaire distributed in this study, but did provide a positive answer to a question on groundwater provision in Koga and Hamada ( 2020 ). It can be seen that the DEW owners who provided groundwater to the local population are largely concentrated in areas with high population density.

Second, Fig. 11 also shows the spatial distribution of the emergency water stations established by the Kumamoto city government (blue pin marks). The number of these stations varied daily but it reached a maximum (33) 10 days after the earthquake struck, as illustrated in Fig. 2 (Kumamoto City Waterworks and Sewerage Bureau 2018 ). Figure 11 describes the situation at that time. The blue circle (scaled radius: 500 m) around each emergency water station represents the distance of the Sphere Standard established by a group of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), the Red Cross, and the Red Crescent Movement. The Sphere Standard proposes a set of universal minimum standards in core areas of humanitarian response in situations of disaster and conflict. In terms of water supply, it indicates that the distance from any household to the nearest point of water supply should be <500 m (Sphere Association 2018 ).

It is evident from Fig. 11b  that the number of water stations was insufficient to meet the Sphere Standard. This means that the inadequate number of water stations forced local people to wait in long lines to obtain water, as acknowledged by the Kumamoto City Waterworks and Sewerage Bureau ( 2018 ). To some extent, the DEWs compensated for the lack of emergency water stations and improved access to water for the local people.

Figure 11 also presents the distribution of the welfare facilities for aged people who obtained groundwater (wheelchair symbols). Table 5 shows that 25 facilities obtained groundwater from ‘1. Resident of detached house’. As illustrated in Fig. 3 , the DEWs in Kumamoto comprise wells owned by industries, welfare facilities, hospitals, and schools, but do not include wells associated with individual private houses. Thus, it is highly probable that private wells not registered as DEWs were also used after the earthquake. Welfare facilities that obtained groundwater from the well of a detached house are indicated by red-colored wheelchair symbols. Clearly, they further reduced the burden of the relief activities of the city government.

Advantage of DEWs: rapid water supply

Figure 7 shows that a reasonably large number of DEW owners started to provide groundwater to the local population on the day of the earthquake or on the following day. The importance of the timing of this provision is evident in consideration of Fig. 12 . It shows the change in the rate of restoration of tap water, where the restoration rate of tap water is calculated by dividing the number of households with restored water supply by the maximum number of households that experienced a cutoff of water supply. It can be seen that tap water was completely unavailable for 3 days following the occurrence of the earthquake, but that restoration of this service occurred rapidly over the subsequent 4 days. Figure 7 highlights the importance of the role of DEWs in providing a water supply during the time when tap water was unavailable. Moreover, it was not until 10 days after the occurrence of the earthquake that the city government increased the number of emergency water stations to 33 (Fig. 2 ). In contrast, as shown in Fig. 7 , most well owners started to provide groundwater to the local population within 6 days of the earthquake. The timeliness of this water supply can be regarded as a major advantage of DEWs.

Change in rate of restoration of tap water

Quantitative estimation of water provision capacity of DEWs

It is informative to consider quantitative evaluation of the water provision capacity of DEWs within 2 days of the earthquake striking. As Fig. 12 shows, no restoration of tap water was achieved during this period. As explained in section ‘ Provision of groundwater ’, 30 of the 57 respondents provided groundwater to the local population. Among them, were nine DEW owners who also satisfied the following conditions: (1) the earthquake did not cause any problems regarding the well, and (2) the well owner started to provide groundwater within 2 days of the earthquake striking. It can be inferred that these wells maintained normal pumping capacity even after the earthquake. Thus, it is possible to estimate the potential provision capacity of the DEWs by multiplying the daily pumping volume by the length of time that the wells were open to the public.

The daily pumping volume was obtained from the annual report on groundwater utilization in Kumamoto. This report is published in accordance with city ordinance and is supposed to list wells whose pumping volume was >30,000 m 3 /year (82.2 m 3 /day) during the previous year. This study checked the pumping volume in 2016, i.e., the year of occurrence of the Kumamoto Earthquake (Kumamoto City 2017 ). In cases where pumping volume was not listed, information was collected by checking the annual report of adjacent years and through personal communication.

Regarding the duration in which their well was open, the nine DEW owners responded as follows: six owners selected ‘1. An entire day’, one owner selected ‘2. Daytime’, and two owners chose ‘3. A part of daytime’. Coefficients of 1, 0.5, and 0.25 were added to each choice, respectively, and the potential total provision capacity of the DEWs was calculated as 1,423.3 m 3 /day (Table 8 ). For reference, the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare of Japan ( 2015 ) recommends that a volume of at least 3 L (0.003 m 3 ) of drinking water per person per day should be secured in the first 3 days following an earthquake to support life. The population of Kumamoto in the year of the earthquake was 740,204 (Kumamoto City 2021 ). Therefore, it is estimated that 2,220.6 m 3 /day (740,204 × 0.003 m 3 /day) of water is needed for the entire population. However, according to the Kumamoto City Waterworks and Sewerage Bureau ( 2018 ), water provision by the city government (via water trucks) was just 133.1 m 3 on 15 April (2 days after the earthquake struck). Clearly, the total potential provision capacity of the nine DEWs was inadequate to satisfy the total estimated water demand, but it was much larger than the volume actually provided by the city government. It is evident that the availability of these DEWs helped the city government with the emergency water supply in the early restoration stage.

Information disclosure

Figure 13 presents a modification of Fig. 11 , in which the welfare facilities for aged people that used local wells (wheelchair symbols in Fig. 11 ) are replaced by those that did not use local wells (X marks in Fig. 13 ). It can be seen that many welfare facilities did not use local wells, even though some DEWs were nearer than the closest emergency water stations. One possible reason is that those facilities were unaware that DEWs were open nearby. Figure 9 reveals that only 25% of respondents (welfare facilities) had knowledge of DEWs even after the earthquake.

a – b Same as Fig. 11a,b , respectively, but instead showing welfare facilities for aged people that did not obtain water from local wells (X marks)

This implies that a public awareness campaign is important following the introduction of DEWs. In the case of Kumamoto, DEWs are currently operated by industries, hospitals, welfare facilities, and schools; therefore, it is less problematic to disclose positional information to the public because privacy concerns are not paramount. Consequently, DEW location information has been disclosed on the official website of the Kumamoto city government. Nonetheless, the level of recognition of DEWs is not high, as shown in Fig. 9 . It is partly because it takes time and effort for local residents to obtain such information. Providing a public awareness campaign via newspapers or during local evacuation training opportunities might help raise the level of DEW recognition.

Conclusions

This paper revealed the actual situation of groundwater use following the Kumamoto Earthquake via two questionnaire surveys distributed to DEW owners and welfare facilities for aged people in the city. The main conclusions derived are as follows.

More than half of the respondents (DEW owners) indicated that the earthquake did not provoke problems with well operation. In cases where well dysfunction was observed, the main cause was not the destruction of the actual facility but the loss of the electricity supply or deterioration of water quality. This indicates that wells proved to be a robust facility following the Kumamoto Earthquake and that they could play an important role as an emergency water supply.

It was found that 30 DEW owners provided groundwater to the local population. Additionally, at least 25 privately owned wells not registered as DEWs were also open to the public following the earthquake. DEWs began to operate in the early restoration stage and improved access to water for the local population, diminishing the burden on the emergency water supply provision by the city government. It was estimated that the potential total provision capacity of the DEWs was 1,423.3 m 3 /day. This volume was inadequate to satisfy the estimated water needs for the entire population (2,220.6 m 3 /day), but it was large compared with the actual water provision by the city government’s water trucks of just 133.1 m 3 /day 2 days after the earthquake’s occurrence.

The survey revealed many cases where it took more than a week to finish groundwater quality inspections after the occurrence of the earthquake. This implies that DEWs could be an effective water resource as long as the use of the water is limited to purposes that do not need high quality, e.g., toilets, as observed in Kumamoto. Moreover, many welfare facilities did not use adjacent DEWs that were open, which suggests that improving information disclosure is a policy issue to be resolved.

Future work should investigate other cases where groundwater has actually been used as in the case of Kumamoto. An appropriate combination of groundwater with other local water sources such as storage of bottled water, building water tanks, use of school pools, and operation of water trucks by the city government should also be considered. Such studies could lead to policy improvements regarding the provision of a stable water supply in emergency situations.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank Kumamoto city government for providing data on the emergency water supply following the Kumamoto Earthquake. Special thanks are offered to the owners of the Disaster Emergency Wells and the welfare facilities for aged people in Kumamoto for answering our questionnaire surveys. The views presented are those of the authors and should in no way be attributed to others. Responsibility for the text (including any errors) rests entirely with the authors. We thank James Buxton, MSc, from Edanz for editing a draft of this manuscript.

We thank Prof. Taikan Oki of the University of Tokyo for his continuous support. Under his leadership, we implemented the research project on groundwater use in an emergency supported by the Council for Science, Technology, and Innovation (CSTI), Cross-ministerial Strategic Innovation Promotion Program (SIP), Enhancement of National Resilience against Natural Disasters (Funding agency: National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience). We thank Prof. Shinichi Yatsuki of Kyushu University for providing us with the opportunity to join the research project on groundwater governance supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research) grant number 20H04392. Special thanks go to Osaka Prefecture University for providing financial support. Finally, our research is partially supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research) grant number 22K12498. The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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Endo, T., Iizuka, T., Koga, H. et al. Groundwater as emergency water supply: case study of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake, Japan. Hydrogeol J 30 , 2237–2250 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-022-02547-9

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Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An M j 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an M j 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest.

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The damage and reconstruction of the Kumamoto earthquake: an analysis on the impact of changes in expenditures with multi-regional input–output table for Kumamoto Prefecture

• Kenta Takeda   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8560-9557 1 &
• Kazuo Inaba 2  

Journal of Economic Structures volume  11 , Article number:  20 ( 2022 ) Cite this article

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The Kumamoto earthquake which occurred in April 2016 measured twice the maximum seismic intensity of 7, causing serious damage to the Kumamoto Prefecture. This study mainly focuses on the demand side of expenditures, estimating the monthly expenditures for 1 year before and after the earthquake. Then, using the multi-regional input–output table for Kumamoto Prefecture, we analyzes the ripple effects by region of the changes in monthly expenditures due to the earthquake. Expenditures in the prefecture in fiscal year 2016 by month decreased by a cumulative total of 592 billion yen because of the earthquake, which generated a value-added loss of 348 billion yen. On the other hand, expenditures increased by a cumulative total of 648 billion yen caused by reconstruction demand, inducing 375 billion yen in value-added gains. Thus, net increase of the value-added of 27 billion yen occupied 10.9% of net increase of the gross prefectural domestic product between fiscal years 2015–2016. The fluctuation of expenditures, induced production, and induced value-added caused by the earthquake is huge. Although the damage to the prefectural economy was severe, reconstruction demand exceeded it, resulting in a quick recovery. However, at the same time, there was a confirmed delay in restoration in industries that were almost unrelated to reconstruction and in regions with a heavy concentration of damage.

1 Introduction

The destructive earthquake that occurred in April 2016 with twice the maximum seismic intensity of 7 in the Kumamoto region caused enormous damage to the entire prefecture. In addition to human casualties and housing damage, the damaging of products and capital equipment in primary and secondary industries caused outrage and a stagnation of production activities. The subsequent destruction of the supply chain spread the negative impact across the country.

The stagnation of production activities decreased corporate surplus and workers’ income and resulted in the reduction of consumer demand and capital formation. Furthermore, anxiety for the future and the reputational damage of the local people due to the earthquakes caused a decline in consumerism and tourism. On the other hand, the active support by the central and local government for the restoration of the infrastructure and the reconstruction of business and personal activities for the local people had an impact on raising consumer demand and capital formation. Thus, the serious damages from the earthquake may have been compensated for by the public expenditure and the people’s efforts to overcome the difficulties they faced. The physical and economic impacts of the earthquake may differ by region.

The purpose of this study is to use the multi-regional input–output (MRIO) table to investigate the economic impacts of the earthquake in the regions of the Kumamoto Prefecture and the degree of recovery made by the restoration and reconstruction program. While an input–output analysis on the supply constraint model reflects an estimation of loss due to disasters, such as the Kumamoto earthquake, this study focuses on the demand side, which involves the change of expenditures in the prefecture by “damage” and “reconstruction.” We elucidate these effects on each region in the prefecture. Two databases, “Regional Domestic Expenditure Index” (RDEI) and “Prefectural Accounts,” enable this study to estimate the expenses of “damage” and “reconstruction” by month and the measure change of spending that annually based data does not grasp. We also estimate their positive and negative economic ripple effects using the MRIO table, which consists of three regions in the Kumamoto Prefecture (Kumamoto City, Northern, and Southern prefectures) as well as other parts of Japan. Figure  1 shows the prefecture and its area classification subject to this analysis. Footnote 1

Area classification of Kumamoto Prefecture

The structure of this paper is as follows: the next section explains the damage and reconstruction of the earthquake for background and reviews previous literature. The third section describes the methodology for the estimation and analysis of changes in expenditures and those ripple effects. The fourth section discusses the estimation result. The last section is the conclusion.

2 Background

2.1 overview of the kumamoto earthquake.

On April 14th, 2016, a magnitude 6.5 earthquake that measured a seismic intensity of 7 struck the Kumamoto region. Furthermore, 2 days after, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake that measured an intensity of 7 struck the region again. 4484 aftershocks over an intensity of 1 were recorded through March 2018. Footnote 2 These disastrous earthquakes resulted in many casualties centered in the Kumamoto Prefecture, caused in part by houses collapsing, liquefaction, and sediment disasters. There are 3009 confirmed casualties in Kumamoto Prefecture (dead: 273, injured: 2736) including related damage. Approximately 198,000 homes were damaged (completely destroyed: 8642, half: 34,389, partially: 155,227). Footnote 3

In addition, production facilities, equipment, and stores related to agriculture, forestry, fisheries, commerce and industry, and social infrastructure such as water, sewage, electricity, gas facilities and roads, as well as cultural assets were also severely damaged. The prefectural office and the Cabinet office estimated the capital stock damage at 3.8 trillion yen, which accounted for 11% of the prefecture’s total capital stock of 34 trillion yen. The Cabinet office evaluated approximately 81–113 billion yen as the amount of flow damage during the month after the earthquake. Footnote 4 Lodging cancellations also reached 330,000 nights. Footnote 5

2.2 Damage and Reconstruction

Whereas torrential rain, typhoons, and COVID-19 struck the region after the earthquake, reconstruction is progressing steadily. The maximum number of evacuees recorded was 184,000 just after the earthquake. 90% of evacuees were able to leave the shelters 1 month later, and all shelters were eliminated by November 2016. Footnote 6 48,000 people still had to move into temporary housing because of the enormous damage to housing. Thereafter, 70% of occupants were able to move into new homes within 2 years, but 95 people are still forced to live in temporary housing. Footnote 7

First, the damage in the regions targeted for analysis is reviewed. The earthquake, with its epicenter in Kamimashiki County in the northern area of the prefecture just southeast of Kumamoto City in Fig.  1 , caused extensive damage mainly from the city to the northern area. Table 1 shows human casualties and building damages by region in the prefecture. Kumamoto City, which has a high population density and many apartment complexes, had the most injured. In addition, number of partially destroyed of housing was highest due to close to the epicenter and frequent liquefaction. Northern prefecture, which located in the epicenter and recorded twice an intensity of 7, has most deaths and number of completely and half destroyed housing units and other building damage. The strong tremors and resulting landslides also caused extensive damage to roads, bridges, and other public works facilities, and to municipal government buildings. In Southern prefecture, which is relatively far from the epicenter, the damage was less damage to both people and buildings. However, there is relatively more damage to public and other facilities, including some municipal government buildings that had become unusable in the area near the epicenter.

Second, review the changes on the demand side after the earthquake based on some economic statistics. Figure  2 shows that starting in September 2016, the synthesis consumption index remained above the FY2015 average until March of FY2017. According to the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), Footnote 8 increased spending on furniture and electrical appliances in April 2017 suggests temporary restoration demand. Then, after the reduction in spending, the project for the revitalization of production activity and rebuilding livelihood stimulated demand.

Regional Domestic Expenditure Index. Source: Based on the Regional Domestic Expenditures Index, the Cabinet Office . Indices are adjusted to average FY2015 = 100. The fixed capital formation is evaluated by actual volume. The public mechanical equipment data have a 3-month lag

Regarding private residential investment, while the level was slightly below the FY2015 average in May 2016, it has been over the average since then, with rapid growth since November 2016. According to the Building Starts Statistics (BSS), the construction floor area is beginning to expand since October 2016. In addition, the number of housings starts above the FY2015 level has cumulatively totaled 9587 through 2018, more than the number of housing units completely destroyed by the earthquake. Footnote 9

In May 2016, private non-residential investment recovered and exceeded the previous fiscal year’s average from June through September 2017. After being below the average in November, its level immediately recovered and has been high ever since. After the fluctuation between April and July 2016, public investment gradually increased, and since December 2016, it has remained well above the average of the previous fiscal year.

Emergency restoration demand rose immediately after the earthquake. Thereafter, although the reaction to the emergency spending and the shortage of construction-related manpower and equipment made demand decrease or slow down, full-fledged demand for reconstruction rose as production activities were revitalized by facility restoration projects, subsidies, and special loans.

Looking at the number of tourists in Fig.  3 , both day trippers and lodgers dropped dramatically in April and May 2016 and rose incrementally after July 2016 thanks to “Kyushu Fukko Wari (Kyushu Reconstruction Discount Tickets) Footnote 10 ”. At the end of 2016, the number of overnight visitors exceeded the average level for FY2015 and then remained steady. Nevertheless, the number of day trippers did not reach the FY2015 average within 2017.

Index of tourists and tourism consumption. Source: Based on the Kumamoto Tourism Statistics, Kumamoto Prefecture. Average in FY2015 = 100. Seasonally adjusted. Tourism consumption is the number of tourists multiplied by per capita spending

Appendix Table 4 shows that while overall, the gross prefectural domestic production (GPDP, expenditure approach) increased as a whole, household final consumption expenditure, private non-residential investment, and inventory changes fell. The reduction in demand for clothing and footwear, housing, and entertainment is especially conspicuous. On the other hand, government demand grew markedly in both consumption and capital formation for restoration and reconstruction.

2.3 Previous studies

There are two approaches to discuss the economic impacts of the earthquake: supply side and demand side.

The former approach focuses on the impacts of the disruption of the supply chain to evaluate production loss caused by the earthquake. Hasebe ( 2002 ) proposes a supply constraint model based on the assumption of an earthquake directly below the Tokyo area and estimated the production decline associated with the earthquake. The model focuses on the headquarters function, which is difficult to substitute, and quantitatively evaluates the impact of bottleneck supply constraints due to the cessation of the headquarters function, assuming a perfect non-substitutional Leontief production function. Shimoda and Fujikawa ( 2012 ) examine a supply constraint model based on the assumption of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. They measured the impact of the production decline in the Tohoku region on other regions using four models: the Leontief model (backward linkage), the Ghosh model (forward linkage), the hybrid model (forward and backward linkage), and the bottleneck model (Hasebe 2002 ), and compared the results. The paper points out the usefulness and problems of each model. Regarding the Kumamoto earthquake, Kanzaki and Okamoto ( 2017 ) estimate backward linkage effects of production decline of agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and the manufacturing industry in the prefecture on economic activities of other parts of Japan using inter-prefectural input–output model. They identify differences in the regional spread of ripple effects by industry using a unique index called multi-reginal interaction reduction rate and also discuss financial measures for the earthquake, calling for the need for proactive financial measures not only for direct stock damage but also for indirect flow damage. Okiyama and Tokunaga ( 2018 ) calculate decline in production of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries in Kumamoto Prefecture which multiplies stock damage by production per capital stock, and measure forward linkage effects with Ghosh model based on inter-prefectural input–output table. Moreover, they assume that similar damage would have occurred in other prefecture, and by estimating and comparing the ripple effects, they clarify the differences in ripple patterns between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas.

On the other hand, the latter approach focuses on amount of damage, economic ripple effects by restoration activities, and the process of reconstruction. Ashiya and Jinushi ( 1999 ) estimate the economic impact of construction investment involving reconstruction activities from the Great Hanshin–Awaji Earthquake. They compile the input–output table for quake-hit area when before and after the earthquake for analysis of structural change on the area. Using these tables and data of damage, they clarify the ripple effects based on economic structure after the hit. Nakano ( 2011 ) assesses the impact of the drop in production and final demand in the areas affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake on employment in Japan. In that paper, the rate of decrease in production is calculated based on the damage to buildings, thereby estimating the amount of decrease in production and demand. In addition, by assuming multiple cases based on the substitutability of goods and by estimating and the ripple effects, the paper shows that the higher the non-substitutability of goods, the worse the impact on employment. As for the Kumamoto earthquake, Cui ( 2016 ) estimates the impact of the decline in number of tourists on the economy of Kumamoto City. At first, he estimates decline in the number of tourists during the recovery process of Himeji Castle and assumes that the restoration process of Kumamoto Castle would follow the same transition as the case in Himeji Castle, where the rate of decrease in tourists and the recovery process during the restoration is estimated. He applies this method to the case in Kumamoto and estimates the negative ripple effects by calculating the amount of decrease in tourists and tourism consumption. Kato and Honjo ( 2016 ) discuss, from a branch plant perspective, the differences in the recovery status of local industries experiencing a great disaster for the first time and those of affiliates of major companies that have already experienced recovery from the earthquake. They evaluate the effects of the earthquake on the prefecture's economy in terms of a fall in production in the manufacturing industry and lodging cancellations in Kumamoto Prefecture. All of the demand side approach listed here are estimated as backward linkage effects using the Leontief model.

In recent years, the trend in input–output analysis of disasters has tended to emphasize the evaluation of production losses (e.g., supply constraints). In the case of the Kumamoto earthquake, demand-side analysis is limited to tourism and some manufacturing industries, while analysis of household consumption, investment, and government spending is insufficient. The supply constraint model measures the impact of supply chain disruptions and tends to focus on effects outside the affected areas, with little reference to spillover effects within Kumamoto Prefecture. Footnote 11 In addition, all approaches only analyze the negative ripple effects from the decrease in production and tourists, and do not mention the positive effects due to the expansion of reconstruction demand. Furthermore, while damage from the earthquake varies by region, most of the analyses do not clarify the damage and its effects by and among regions within the prefecture. Although, since these analyses are conducted at a relatively early stage after the occurrence of the earthquake with limited data availability, their methodologies and value as a preliminary report are appreciated.

Based on the previous studies, this study focuses on demand side and analyze impacts of change in expenditure by region and month due to damage and reconstruction demand caused the Kumamoto earthquake using multi-regional input-out table for Kumamoto Prefecture, which we estimate independently. This study follows these demand side approach and estimates backward linkage effects by multi-regional Leontief model.

3 Methods and analytical framework

3.1 compilation of multi-regional input output table for kumamoto.

This study uses the MRIO table for Kumamoto Prefecture in 2015, which consists of 105 industrial sectors and 4 regions: Kumamoto Prefecture (Kumamoto city, Northern region, and Southern region), and the other parts of Japan. Using a non-survey method, the intra-regional input–output tables each region are compiled based on the input–output (IO) tables for the prefecture and Japan, and other statistics. Inter-regional transactions were estimated by referring Maekawa ( 2012 )'s method. The method divides transactions of inter-reginal IO table which consist of two regions between inside and outside a prefecture into targeted areas and the other parts by production and demand share. This method is extended to divide transactions in the prefecture into Kumamoto City and the other area, and then divide transactions in the other area into northern and southern areas. These compiled tables are rearranged to Chenery–Moses type model. Moreover, they are applied to the Isard type. Footnote 12

3.2 Estimation of expenditure change by damages from the earthquake and the reconstruction process

Monthly base expenditure is used to examine the impacts of damages from the earthquake and the reconstruction process. The Prefectural Accounts only publishes the yearly base final demand. We need to estimate monthly base final demand by industry and region. Katayama and Yagi ( 2016 ) allocate the GPDP by month using RDEI, then calculate private consumption immediately following the earthquake using the Economy Watchers Survey.

Following their method, we calculate expenditures for each month by allocating nominal GPDP as in the Appendix Table 3 using RDEI by item in Fig.  2 and distributing by industry and region. Tourism consumption Footnote 13 is measured by month, industry, and region using the Kumamoto Tourism Statistics.

Eligible expenditure items of final demand are (1) consumption of households, private Investment, (2) residential, (3) non-residential], (4) public Investment, and (5) tourism consumption. The target regions are Kumamoto City, Northern and Southern prefectures, and number of industries spans 105 sectors. The target period is 1 year before and after the earthquake (from April 2015 to May 2017). Footnote 14 The benchmark of monthly expenditures is taken from FY2015, and if expenditures for each month in FY2016 are lower than in FY2015, the difference is considered a “decrease” due to earthquake damage; if they are higher, the difference is regarded as an “increase” caused by reconstruction demand. The sum of the final demand from 1 to 4 accounted for around 80% of the total GPDP. Footnote 15

3.2.1 Estimation of monthly expenditure

1) Consumption of households

Multiplying the itemized expenditure according to purpose from the GPDP using the indexed spending by item of the FIES Footnote 16 enables us to obtain household consumption by item and month. Since its monthly total is not equal to the estimated result of the monthly total in the preceding paragraph, the RAS method is used adjust the total. Footnote 17 This total is distributed in each region using the regional ratios from population of the Basic Resident Registration. Then, the expenditure by item in each region is calculated with regional total by the composition ratio of the item category spending from the FIES. Thus, by rating itemized regional data in accordance with the industry classification in the IO table and converting them into producer prices, the expenditures by month, industry, and region are obtained.

2) Private residential investment

The monthly expenses are allocated to each region based on regional ratios of the construction floor area obtained from the BSS. Then, the gross regional domestic fixed capital formation (GRDFCF) (private sector) in 2016 and 2017 is calculated by multiplying the gross regional domestic fixed capital formation of the MRIO table by the growth rate of same item of the updated IO table for Japan in 2016 and 2017. These data are divided into residential and non-residential in accordance with the ratio obtained from the BSS and the Building Remodeling and Renewal Survey. Finally, the expenditure by industry is estimated by multiplying the composition ratio of residential parts by the spending by month and region.

3) Private non-residential investment

The private non-residential investment by month is distributed to each region using regional ratios taken from the acquisition amount of property, plant, and equipment in the Census of Manufacture. Footnote 18 Then the expenditure by industry is calculated by multiplying the composition ratio of non-residential parts in 2) by the monthly expense and by region.

4) Public investment

The public investment by month is allocated to each region in accordance with regional ratios that obtained the investment expenses in the Settlement Cards. In addition, the GRDFCF (public sector) of the MRIO table is updated to 2016 and 2017 in a similar way as 2). Afterward, the expenditure by industry is valued by multiplying the composition ratio of them and the spending by month and region.

5) Tourism consumption

The monthly tourism consumption by region (MTCR) is estimated by multiplying the number of tourists (day trippers and lodgers, seasonally adjusted) by per capita consumption taken from the Kumamoto Tourism Statistics. Footnote 19 Monthly tourism consumption by region and item are derived from multiplying MTCR by composition ratio by item taken from the Tourism Consumption Behavior Survey. This itemized consumption is converted to consumption by region and industry in a similar way to 1.

3.2.2 Change of the final demand

There are various interpretation of reconstruction and its effects. For example, return of certain economic indicators restore to before earthquake levels, or government spending to cope with the disaster. This study analyzes change in expenditure before and after the earthquake regardless of public or private, considering surplus above levels before the earthquake to reconstruction demand. The difference between the same months in FY2015 and FY2016 by item, region, and industry is obtained from the monthly expenditures estimated by the above procedure. If the amount of the expense in each month of FY 2016 is less than the previous fiscal year, the impact is treated as “decrease” due to earthquake damage. If the amount in FY2016 exceeds that of the previous fiscal year, the impact is treated as “increase” due to reconstruction demand.

3.3 Analytical model

To estimate economic ripple effects of the change in the final demand, the open Kumamoto MRIO table in 2015 Footnote 20 with endogenous import is used. For the estimation of the changes of production and value-added, the amount of the monthly expenditures change (producer prices Footnote 21 ) are treated as given changes of the final demand \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{F}}\) . The following equations are a MRIO equilibrium model Footnote 22 and its derivation process. For details on the symbols (matrices, vectors, and these elements) used in the equations, see the Appendix (“ Analytical model details ” section).

Supply–demand balance on the MRIO table with endogenous import is

Solving ( 1 ) for \({\varvec{X}}\) gives

If reginal final demand changes by \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{F}}\) , the induced regional domestic production is obtained as

Multiply the value-added ratio by \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{X}}\) to find the induced value-added accounted for the induced production:

\({\varvec{X}}\) : Total regional domestic production vector; \({\varvec{A}}\) : Input coefficient matrix; \({\varvec{F}}\) : Final demand vector; \({\varvec{E}}\) : Export vector; \({\varvec{T}}\) : Inter-regional trade coefficient matrix; \({{\varvec{T}}}_{{\varvec{L}}}\) : Intra-regional supply coefficient matrix; \(\widehat{{\varvec{M}}}\) : Import coefficient matrix; \({\varvec{I}}\) : Identity matrix; \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{F}}\) : Change of final demand vector; \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{X}}\) : Induced production vector; \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{V}}\) : Induced value-added vector; \(\widehat{{\varvec{v}}}\) : Value-added ratio matrix. Footnote 23 ; \({\varvec{\gamma}}\) : Converter matrix for consolidation of the industrial sector from 105 to 31; Number of Industrial sectors \(: 105, 31\) ; Number of Regions: 4.

Assume a case where consumption is declining due to future uncertainty caused by the damage from the earthquake and the resulting stagnation of production activities. In this case, \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{F}}\) be negative, because expenditure is below the level of the same month of the previous fiscal year, and negative ripple effects ( \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{X}}\) , \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{V}}\) <0) be calculated. On the other hand, if expenditure is increasing due to reconstruction demand generated by lives back in order and restoration of infrastructure, \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{F}}\) be positive and positive ripple effects ( \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{X}}\) , \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{V}}\) >0) be estimated.

The monthly change vector of final demand by item, which is difference between same month FY2015-2016, is denoted by

Superscript \(k\) represents the expenditure item, 1–5; subscript \(m\) represents the month, 1–12. To analysis of impacts due to damage from earthquake or reconstruction demand separately divide change of final demand into increase and decrease:

The superscript \(+\) means that the negative element of \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{F}_{m}^{k}}\) is replaced by 0; \(-\) means that the positive element is replaced by 0. Therefore, \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{F}}\) and \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{X}}\) , \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{V}}\) in Eqs. ( 3 ) and ( 4 ) are replaced as follows:

The superscript \(l\) represents the mathematical symbol, \(+\) or \(-\) . The induced production and the induced value-added obtained from Eqs. ( 7 ) and ( 8 ) are defined as the ripple effects for changes of final demand, by reconstruction demand in the case of \(l=+\) and by earthquake damage in the case of \(l=-\) . This allows us to estimate the induced production and value-added by item and region due to the monthly change of expenditure caused by the earthquake.

4 Results and discussion

The annual cumulative increase and decrease in expenditure and its ripple effects, which are estimated by methods of above section, by region in 1 year are shown in Table 2 . In the following sections, we will examine this in detail, breaking it down by item, industry, and month for expenditure and induced value-added.

4.1 Change of final demand due to the earthquake

According to Table 2 , the annual cumulative decrease of expenditure due to earthquake damage, which is derived from difference of the monthly spending in both fiscal years, is estimated at 592 billion yen. On the other hand, the annual cumulative increase in expenditure by reconstruction demand is calculated at 648 billion yen. These amounts accounted for 10.4% and 11.4% of the total GPDP in FY2015, respectively. Figure  4 shows transition of net change of monthly expenditure by region, and the vertical axis 0 of the figure signifies the level of expense in each month of FY2015.

Change of the monthly final demand by region. The total is sum of the \({\sum }_{k}{\sum }_{l}{\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{F}_{m}^{k\cdot l}}\) by region and. The stacked bar by month and region of graphs shows amount of net change by item (the sum of \({\sum }_{l}{\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{F}_{m}^{k\cdot l}}\) by region). Therefore, sum of first or fourth quadrant is not equal to the cumulative increase or decrease in Table 2 , which totals increase or decrease by item and industry, respectively

Expenditure in the prefecture dropped down in from May to August 2016, then as the figure indicates, gradually recovered. From November 2016, it rose. Regarding household consumption, after a decrease for 6 months beginning in May, it recovered. The change in private residential investment was always positive except in June 2016 compared to FY2015. Private non-residential investment fell throughout 2016 except in September, with recovery in January and February of 2017. Public investment was positive throughout the fiscal year. In contrast, tourism consumption remained negative throughout FY2016.

Appendix Table 5 shows annual cumulative total of net change of monthly expenditure by item, region, and industry. In the entire region of the prefecture, increased amounts exceeded decreased ones in industries, such as construction, professional activities, transport equipment, and finance and insurance. These increased items are closely related to the consumption of households and private investment. On the other hand, in real estate, transport and postal service, and other service activities, increased expenditure amounts were less than the decreased amounts.

The impacts on each region are as follows. In Kumamoto City, where earthquake damage was moderate, annual cumulative drop and rise was recorded at 185 billion yen and 230 billion yen, respectively. The monthly expenditure exceeded the previous year's level immediately after the earthquake due to a temporary increase in household consumption, but then plunged and stagnated for several months. It almost recovered in November 2016 and subsequently experienced a significant increase due to the growth of private residential investment and public investment. It is thought that the increase in household consumption immediately after the disaster was an emergency response to the numerous injuries and damage to housing, with a sharp drop due to the backlash and uncertainty about the future, followed by an increase in full-fledged reconstruction demand.

In the northern part of the prefecture, where main infrastructures were severely damaged, the annual cumulative decrease and increase were 297 billion yen and 246 billion yen, respectively. Both amounts were the largest among the three regions. Although public investment was expanded to overcome the damage, total spending did not recover in 2016 because of difficulty in restoring private non-residential investment and household and tourism consumption. Consequently, noticeable decreases appeared in accommodations and food service activities, and general machinery. The notable weakness in non-residential investment and tourism consumption indicates the extent of the damage to people and buildings and its harmful rumors. In line with the scale of the damage, public investment also expanded, with the largest net increase, but it did not cover even half of the decline in other expenditures.

In the southern part of the prefecture, where the amount of damage suffered was small, the recorded annual cumulative decline was 110 billion yen and the annual cumulative increase was 171 billion yen. Both amounts were the smallest among the regions, but the net change of expenditure was the biggest. Although this area experienced slightly decreased expenditures in July and August 2016 due to a decline in household consumption, increased spending on non-residential and public investment pushed the other months spending above the previous fiscal year’s level. However, the annual cumulative total of residential investment was the only net decrease in the prefecture, due in part to the extremely low number of housing collapses. Looking at industry, as a result of the increased spending, the region conspicuously gained in the activities of construction and professional service.

4.2 The ripple effects

It is estimated that the annual cumulative decrease in prefecture spending pushed down final demand by 425 billion yen and production by 553 billion yen in the prefecture as a whole. On the other hand, the annual cumulative increase in expenditure boosted final demand by 487 billion yen and induced 648 billion yen gain in production in the prefecture as a whole. As a result, prefectural production is estimated to have grown by 94 billion yen in 2016. This amount accounts for 19.9% of the increase in output of the prefectural accounts in FY2015-2016.

In addition, annual cumulative value-added loss was 348 billion yen, and annual cumulative gain was 375 billion yen; that resulted in a net gain of 27 billion yen. This net gain was equivalent to 10.9% of the increase in GPDP of 246 billion yen over the same period. The change of final demand are calculated based on GPDP (expenditure). Therefore, the Induced value-added caused by those fit Footnote 24 the range of GPDP (production). In other words, the induced value-added is a part of GPDP, the ratio indicates the extent to which the induced value-added cover GPDP. Figure  5 shows the transition of the net change of induced value-added due to the monthly change of expenditure by region. Appendix Table 6 shows the annual cumulative total of net change of monthly induced value-added by item, region, and industry.

Net change of the monthly induced value-added by region. The total is the sum of \({\sum }_{k}{\sum }_{l}{\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{V}_{m}^{k\cdot l}}\) by region. The stacked bar by month and region of graphs shows amount of net change by item (the sum of \({\sum }_{l}{\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{V}_{m}^{k\cdot l}}\) by region). Therefore, sum of first or fourth quadrant is not equal to the cumulative increase or decrease in Table 2 , which totals increase or decrease by item and industry, respectively

According to Table 2 , net change of the induced value-added of Kumamoto City, northern, and southern prefecture is 1.4 billion yen, − 5.3 billion yen, and 30.8 billion yen, which is equivalent to 1.5%, − 3.8%, and 108.4% to the total amount of the gross regional domestic product (GRDP) change in each region over the same period, respectively. Footnote 25

While expenditure in the northern prefecture experienced the most decrease among the regions, drop in imports due to the decline in the non-residential investment demand. Consequently, net change in production became positive in this area. Comparing Figs.  4 and 5 , shows that the decline in non-residential investment has narrowed and that the net change of induced value-added brought about by expenditures in April and November has become positive. Although the net change of annual cumulative induced value-added remained negative. In Kumamoto City, where the increased expenditures significantly exceeded decreased expenditures, the fall in exports due to decline in demand outside the city, and rise in imports due to leakage of demand to outside the city. Therefore, the annual cumulative increase and the annual cumulative decrease in regional domestic demand were at a same level. The net changes of the induced value-added due to the monthly change of expenditure were mostly negative within 2016, and their annually total became significantly small. In the south of the prefecture, where net increase in expenditure was largest, imports gained due to leakage of the private non-residential investment demand. Thereby, net change in annually induced production and value-added remained positive and was the largest in the prefecture, though the net decrease in induced value-added due to the monthly change of expenditure ware expanded. Regarding regions outside the prefecture, trade with the prefecture generated an increase and decrease in regional domestic demand same level as the southern prefecture. However, the cumulative increase in the ripple effects far outweighed the cumulative decrease; the net increase of value-added were more than that of the Kumamoto Prefecture. Transactions of the net change of induced value-added are roughly similar to those in the prefecture, although July and September show significantly different movements due to the influx of manufacturing-related demand.

By region and industry (Appendix Table 6 ), Kumamoto City has seen severe negative outcomes in other service activities and real estate, while construction and professional activities have seen positive outcomes, with the investments offsetting the decrease in the consumptions. In the northern prefecture, there has been a marked negative impact in sectors of relevance to non-residential investment and tourism, but a large growth in construction by public investment has compensated for the drop to some extent. In the southern prefecture, the sectors of relation to household and residential experienced relatively small declines, and construction and professional activities related to non-residential and public investment greatly exceeded these. Outside the prefecture, the value-added has decreased in tourism consumption and non-residential investment-related sectors. On the contrary, it has increased markedly in transport equipment and professional activities, with household consumption making up for most of the decline.

5 Conclusions

This study investigated the increase and decrease in expenditure due to the damage and reconstruction demand caused by the Kumamoto earthquake, and analyzed the impact of the earthquake on production and added value in and outside of the prefecture using the MRIO table.

Our findings indicate that earthquake damage caused an annual cumulative decrease in expenditures of 592 billion yen and value-added losses of 348 billion yen in the prefecture as a whole. Reconstruction demand led to an annual cumulative increase in spending of 648 billion yen and a value-added gain of 375 billion yen in the prefecture. The net increase in value-added of 27 billion yen, which difference of increase and decrease in value-added inducement, accounted for 10.9% of the total GPDP gain during the same period. Looking at monthly transitional changes, the expenditure level was less than the previous fiscal year’s level during several months due to the reduction of household consumption, tourism consumption, and private non-residential investment. A few months after the earthquake, the level recovered more than that of the previous fiscal year because of the rapid expansion of private residential and public investment. In the northern prefecture, where damage was particularly bad, spending fell sharply due to a drop in consumption and non-residential investment, while an expansion of production through residential and public investment compensated for these losses to some extent. In Kumamoto City, where the damage was moderate, though an increase in expenditures was significantly higher than the decrease, net gain in value-added was significantly small due to leakage of these demand to outside the city. In the southern prefecture, where damage was relatively mild, both expenditure and value-added loss exceeded the previous fiscal year’s levels for many months due to the expansion of non-residential investment, and the excess of the increase was the largest among the three regions. Outside the prefecture experienced increase and decrease in demand about the same as that of southern prefecture through trade, and the net rise in value-added greater than that of the prefecture.

In this way, the monthly increase and decrease in expenditures and its induced production and value-added owing to the Kumamoto earthquake was very large, and the damage to the prefecture’s economy was enormous. Recovery was achieved in a short period of time by virtue of reconstruction-related demand that exceeded the economic damage. However, this is only true for the prefecture's economy as a whole, a delay in restoration was observed in areas, where damage was concentrated and in industries with weak links to reconstruction-related demand. Our results also show that the change in expenditure within the prefecture had significant impact on the other parts of Japan. To our best knowledge this is the first time to use the monthly data by region, item, and industry for the investigation of the economic impacts of the Kumamoto earthquake.

However, there are several issues to be considered. As a final demand, government consumption and imports/exports which are not included in the scope of this study, have a considerable weight in the gross prefectural domestic product. Thus, the impact of changes in these items is expected to be larger than our estimation. In addition, a comparison of the estimation results with the prefectural and municipal accounts suggests a bias in the allocation of expenditure to industries and regions. Footnote 26 Although supply constraints due to the earthquake may bring about changes in the economic structure, this study has not been able to take this into account. Moreover, this study did not consider the financial burden of subsidies, restoration investments, and other forms of reconstruction assistance. If these are financed by taxes or government bonds, it will be a tax burden on the people in the future and is expected to have a negative impact on the economy. Besides, as indicated in the Background and Results section, not everything was resolved during the targeted period. Although lives back in order and restoring infrastructure after a great disaster takes a long period of time, which was not covered in this analysis. All of these issues are left for further study.

Availability of data and materials

The data sets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. Statistics used in this paper can be obtained at the following website of public offices. Cabinet Office: National Accounts, Gross Domestic Product, Regional Domestic Expenditure Index; Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry: Updated Input–Output Table, Census of Manufacture, Indices of Industrial Production; Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism: Building Starts Statistics, Building Remodeling and Renewal Survey, Tourism Consumption Behavior Survey; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications: Input Output Table for Japan, Population of the Basic Resident Registration, Settlement Cards, Family Income and Expenditure Survey, Economic Census; Kumamoto Prefectural Office: Input–Output Table for Kumamoto Prefecture, Prefectural Accounts, Municipal Accounts, Gross Prefectural Domestic Product, Gross Regional Domestic Product, Kumamoto Tourism Statistics.

See the Appendix Table 3 for a detailed breakdown of the municipalities in each region.

“Information on the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake,” Japan Meteorological Agency website. https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/menu/h28_kumamoto_jishin_menu.html . Accessed 6 August 2022.

“Damage from the Kumamoto Earthquake [Report 326],” Kumamoto prefecture, 2022. https://www.pref.kumamoto.jp/soshiki/4/51503.html . Accessed 6 August 2022.

Kumamoto Prefecture estimate: Kumamoto Prefecture, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Department ( 2018 ). Cabinet Office estimate: Tsutsumi et al. ( 2016 ).

Welcome to Kumamoto, Tourism Promotion Plan (2017–2019), Kumamoto prefecture, 2018.

Verification Report on the Response to the Kumamoto Earthquake, the Department of Education, Kumamoto prefecture, 2018. https://www.pref.kumamoto.jp/site/kyouiku/9189.html . Accessed 3 May 2022.

Changes in occupancy of emergency temporary housing (As of March 31, 2022), Kumamoto prefecture, 2022. https://www.pref.kumamoto.jp/soshiki/27/132538.html . Accessed 3 May 2022.

Family Income and Expenditure Survey (April-March FY2016: Kumamoto City, households with two or more members), Statistical Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

Building Starts Statistics (monthly and annually FY2015–2018: Kumamoto prefecture), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. The housing types referred to here are "residential-only," "semi-residential," and "combined residential/industrial" housing on the BSS.

Subsidy system for travel plans with discounts to support tourism in Kyushu. The government has allocated 18 billion yen from the “Kumamoto Earthquake Recovery Reserve Fund” to each prefecture in Kyushu. The prefectures will request tourism-related companies to sell discounted products (trips with accommodations, one-day tours) and subsidize the amount of the discount.

In part of the supply constraint model, the struck areas are exogenized, so it is not possible to measure the ripple effects that extend to them.

Based on Chenery ( 1954 ), Isard ( 1951 ), and Moses ( 1955 ). See Takeda ( 2020 ) for details on how to prepare each intra- and multi-regional IO table.

According to the Guidelines for Prefectural Accounts Estimation Methodology of the Cabinet Office, consumption of households consists of expenditures by residents. Kumamoto Prefecture is considered to follow this rule, and tourism consumption is treated independently. However, since Kumamoto tourism statistics include in-prefecture tourists, it partially overlaps with consumption of households.

In fact, recovery and reconstruction is a long-term process. After April 2017, many people continued to be forced to live in temporary housing and private and public investment for lives back in order has expanded or remained at the high levels. However, Kumamoto Prefecture has been hit by a series of disasters, and various statistics do not exclude factors other than the earthquake. In other words, since it is difficult to isolate the earthquake alone from those factors, we focus on a short period of time when the impact of the earthquake is considered significant.

In the regional economy, the share of inter-regional balance of payments is high, and government consumption has been increasing rapidly due to the response to the earthquake, both of which are factors that cannot be ignored. However, since it is difficult to obtain monthly data, they are not included. The same is true for the other items.

Kumamoto city, households with two or more members, seasonally adjusted.

RAS method is based on Stone ( 1961 ).

Data for 2017 were not available, so estimates were made by linear interpolation from data for 2016 and 2018.

In the northern and southern areas, households and tourists within the prefecture are confused because of the different regional classifications in the Kumamoto Tourism Statistics and Kumamoto MRIO tables. Since it was difficult to adjust these figures, they were applied as is. Thus, for these overlaps, consumption in the northern and southern regions may have been overestimated.

Although the input coefficients and trade structures may change due to the earthquake, this paper does not take this into account due to data limitations. In this regard, an examination of the Great East Japan Earthquake by Kunimitsu and Ueda ( 2018 ) points out that the cost structure (input coefficients) is stable and the impact of disasters on the Leontief model is relatively small.

Consumption of households and tourism is converted by the distribution margin rate of the Input–Output table for Japan in 2015 to producer prices.

The adjusted self-sufficiency rate is applied for the calculation of tourism consumption.

The value-added ratio is calculated as the ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) to gross domestic output (GDO) by using the National Accounts and Kumamoto Prefectural Accounts for 2015 and 2016.

Since not all expenditure items are covered and the timing of the achievement of the ripple effects cannot be accurately measured. Thus, the induced value-added in this study do not match or exceed the GPDP as a rule.

Only in the southern prefecture is the net increase in value-added higher than growth of the GRDP, and it is much higher than in other regions. This suggests that there is a problem with the regional distribution of expenditures.

Please refer to the Appendix (“ Verifications of models and comparisons with actual values ” section).

Abbreviations

Input–output table

Multi–reginal input–output table

Regional Domestic Expenditure Index

Gross domestic output

Gross domestic product

Gross prefectural domestic product

Gross regional domestic product

Family Income and Expenditure Survey

Building Starts Statistics

Gross regional domestic fixed capital formation

Monthly tourism consumption by region

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Acknowledgements

This paper is based on a report presented at the International Conference on Economic Structures 2022 in Yokohama, Japan. We are very grateful to the valuable comments from the audiences at the conference. We would like to thank the editors and the anonymous referees of the journal for their useful and critical comments on the manuscript. We express special gratitude to Dr. Eiji Doi, emeritus professor at Shizuoka University, for his continuous encouragement and support. We also appreciate discussions with Dr. Takahiko Hashimoto, professor at Ritsumeikan University, have been illuminating. Some local people are still forced to live in temporary housing. We hope that they will be able to rebuild their lives as soon as possible.

The authors are supposed by the research fund provided by the Institute of Social Systems, Ritsumeikan University.

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Kenta Takeda

Faculty of Economics, Ritsumeikan University, 1-1-1 Noji-higashi, Kusatsu-shi, Shiga-ken, 525-8577, Japan

Kazuo Inaba

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Both authors designed the research and KT made calculations. KT analyzed data and interpreted the results and made the first draft. KI revised the manuscript. Both authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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KT, Principal investigator, The General Incorporated Association Institute for Policy and Sciences, 1-3 Asahigaoka, Fujieda-shi, Shizuoka-ken, 426-0081, Japan.

KI, Senior researcher, The Institute of Social Systems Study, Ritsumeikan University, 1-1-1 Noji-higashi, Kusatsu-shi, Shiga-ken, 525-8577, Japan.

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Correspondence to Kenta Takeda .

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See Tables 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 .

1.1 Analytical model details

The following based on the Kumamoto MRIO table in 2015. The number of industrial sector and regions is 105 and 4. Superscript r and s can be C, N, S , and O and represent Kumamoto City, Northern prefecture, Southern prefecture, and Outside of the prefecture, respectively. Subscript i and j represent industrial sector and can be from 1 to 105.

Supply-demand balance on the MRIO table with endogenous import (repost)

MRIO Equilibrium Model (repost)

The Ripple Effect (repost)

Symbols and Elements

Regional Domestic Production vector

\({X}_{i}^{r}\) : Domestic production of i -goods in r -region.

Input Coefficient matrix

\({a}_{ij}^{r}=\frac{{x}_{ij}^{r}}{{X}_{j}^{r}}\) : Input coefficient between i -sector and j -sector in r -region.

\({x}_{ij}^{r}\) : Intermediate transactions between i -sector and j -sector in r -region.

Final Demand vector

\({F}_{i}^{r}\) : Final demand of i -goods in r -region.

Exports vector

\({E}_{i}^{r}\) : Export of i -goods in r -region.

Inter-regional Trade Coefficient matrix

: Inter-regional trade coefficient of i -goods from r -region to s -region

\({t}_{i}^{ss}=1-{\Sigma }_{r}{t}_{i}^{rs}\) : Intra-regional supply coefficient of i -goods in s -region.

Intra-regional Supply Coefficient matrix

Import Coefficient matrix

: Import coefficient of i -goods from abroad to r -region.

\({M}_{i}^{r}\) : Imports of i -goods from abroad to r -region.

Identity matrix: \({\varvec{I}}\)

Zero matrix: 0

Change of Final Demand vector

\({\Delta F}_{i}^{r}\) : Change of final demand of i -goods in r -region.

Induced Production vector

\(\Delta {X}_{i}^{r}\) : Induced production of i -goods in r -region.

Induced Value-added vector

\(\Delta {V}_{p}^{q}={\nu }_{p}^{q}\Delta {X}_{p}^{q}\) : Induced value-added of p -goods in q -region.

\({\varvec{\gamma}}\) : Converter for consolidation of the industrial sector from 105 to 31.

Value-added ratio matrix

\({\nu }_{p}^{q}=\frac{{GDP}_{p}^{q}}{{GDO}_{p}^{q}}\) : value-added ratio of p -goods in q -region.

\({\mathrm{GDP}}_{p}^{q}\) : Gross domestic product of p -goods in q -region.

\({\mathrm{GDO}}_{p}^{q}\) : Gross domestic output of p -goods in q -region.

Superscript \(q\) can be \(K, J\) and represent Kumamoto Prefecture and Japan, respectively. Subscript \(p\) represent industrial sector and can be from 1 to 31. This is because GDP and GDO can only be obtained from the prefecture and Japan and industrial classification of that is 31. Both value-added ratios are for fiscal year 2016. In addition, this analysis replace \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{F}},{\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{X}},{\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{V}}\) with the change of monthly expenditure \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{F}_{m}^{k\cdot l}}\) , the induced production \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{X}_{m}^{k\cdot l}}\) , and the induced value-added \({\varvec{\Delta}}{\varvec{V}_{m}^{k\cdot l}}\) , respectively. Both vectors are equal in structure.

1.2 Verifications of models and comparisons with actual values

Tables 7 and 8 shows the induced value-added coverage to the GDP for each region in FY2015-2016. The coverages indicate the extent to which value-added induced by targeted expenditure items covers actual values.

Although the targeted expenditure items accounted for about 80% of the GPDP (expenditure), Table 7 shows that their induced value-added covered only about 50% of the GPDP (production). By industry, the coverage was high for several services and fishing, and moderate for agriculture, food products, and wholesale and retail trade. In particular, the coverage in several manufacturing and related to public service sectors were noticeably poor. This suggests that the coverage is lower for industries with higher export rates or amount of government consumption. In addition, estimates for construction and professional activities exceeded actual values, while the forestry sector, which is not captured by the FIES, has a low coverage.

According to Table 8 , the induced value-added by region also accounted for only about 50% of the GRDP (production) in each region. These areas are also in common to low coverage in industries related to exports and government consumption, and overrated construction. On the other hand, in northern and southern prefecture, the ratings of such as professional activities and information and communications were reversed comparing to the city, and they are each overrated.

If the analysis is limited to the targeted items, the estimated results for the prefecture can be said to capture the actual values to some extent. However, the weight of spending on exports and government consumption in induced value-added is too large to ignore. Moreover, the allocation of expenditures by region and industry confirmed a bias toward some sectors.

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Takeda, K., Inaba, K. The damage and reconstruction of the Kumamoto earthquake: an analysis on the impact of changes in expenditures with multi-regional input–output table for Kumamoto Prefecture. Economic Structures 11 , 20 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-022-00276-6

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Received : 06 June 2022

Revised : 09 September 2022

Accepted : 11 September 2022

Published : 18 October 2022

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-022-00276-6

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• Regional input–output table
• Multi–regional input–output analysis
• 2016 Kumamoto earthquake
• Kumamoto Prefecture
• Economic ripple effects

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Case Study of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake: The Disaster Response Capability of Kumamoto Compact City, Japan

Hang Liu 1 * , Riken Homma 2 and Kazuhisa Iki 1

1 Graduate School of Science and Technology, 2-39-1 Kurokami, Chuo-ku, Kumamoto, Japan 2 Faculty of Advanced Science and Technology, 2-39-1 Kurokami, Chuo-ku, Kumamoto, Japan

* Corresponding author: [email protected]

Compact cities are widely used in urban planning in Japan due to the following benefits: efficient land use, reduction in the transport network and reliance on mass transport, low emissions, etc. However, Compactness often means high density. In disaster-resistant Japan, whether the compact city form can effectively respond to disasters is needed further discussion. In the Kumamoto City Master Plan, 15 local hubs have been planned to promote the development of the compact city. In this study, 15 local hubs are selected as the research objects. Moreover, the entropy method was chosen to evaluate the disaster prevention capability. The results show that disaster risk is high and the disaster prevention ability is weak in the central urban area, which is likely to cause greater losses when the disaster occurs. The local hubs that are far away from the city centre also have the weak disaster prevention due to the lack of disaster prevention facilities, while some hub areas are more capable of disaster prevention despite the high risk of disasters. Therefore, in the post-disaster reconstruction plan, it is recommended making a focus on the low-risk and disaster resistant areas. At the same time, the cancellation of hubs with high risk and weak disaster prevention needs to be further discussed.

© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2020

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